DTH in Central & Eastern Europe and Russia:
More Platforms, Channels and Subscribers, but Inevitable Consolidation
Central and Eastern Europe has seen the launch of 25 unique Direct-to-Home (DTH) platforms since the beginning of this decade. Upcoming launches in the form of Digital Fly in Ukraine and Continent TV in Russia will take the tally up to 31 platforms by the first quarter of 2010, which averages out to nearly one platform every quarter for the past seven years. These platforms together were serving just over 17 million DTH subscribers as of the end of 2008, a figure that will have grown to over 20 million by the end of this year. However, given the regions 400 million strong population and low double digit penetration rate, the market still remains attractive.


New Platforms
Slovakia is preparing for the launch of what will be its fourth DTH platform. Deutsche Telekom's T-Home is testing a new satellite pay-TV service, MagioSat TV for launch at the end of 2009. The service will target regions not covered by the existing Magio IPTV service, owned by Slovak Telekom, in which Deutsche Telekom is a major shareholder. More than 7,000 customers have pre-registered in the past month alone, confirming big public interest in the new service.

Meanwhile, the Czech/Slovak DTH platform Skylink is growing strongly and now has 800,000 active cardholders of which more than a quarter of a million have been added in the past 12 months. Skylink is a prepay service and the leading DTH platform in the Czech Republic. In Slovakia, it is still believed to be in second place behind Digi TV.

Ukraine will see the launch of a third DTH platform by the beginning of next year. According to NSR's sources, it will be known as Digital Fly Ukraine and be operated by Kesongs Enterprises. NSR has learned that Digital Fly has begun test broadcasting of its DVB-S2 MPEG-4 digital TV service on satellite Thor 3 at 0.8°W. A possible fourth, MYtv Ukraine, has chosen Intelsat for a multi-year capacity contract to deliver its DTH platform over the Thor 6 satellite.

Balkan satellite service Total TV is about to launch its services in Macedonia, its seventh market in the region. On the other hand, Georgian TV homes will shortly be able to receive the country's first digital satellite TV platform. Market drivers such as low penetration and the "stay at home" effects of the recession are encouraging the entry of new platforms all across the region.

The question that is raised by this unprecedented growth in number of DTH platforms is that of sustainability. Countries such as Poland are expected to have as many as six DTH platforms, and for each one to remain profitable is becoming increasingly difficult. As the region enters into a "subscriber grab" phase, NSR believes that for platforms to achieve scale they will need to consolidate at some stage. The trend is already beginning to take shape in countries such as Russia with NTV Plus and Tricolor, two of the largest platforms in the region merging operations.

Russia Leads
Consolidation has been expected in the Central and Eastern Europe DTH market for a long time now. The first evidence of this trend has been seen in Russia's Gazprom-Media Holding taking a controlling stake in the National Satellite Company, which operates the DTH platform Tricolor TV. Given that Gazprom already owns NTV Plus, the company will now oversee two satellite operations with a combined total of over 6 million subscribers. Tricolor TV is currently the fastest growing DTH platform in Central Europe claiming 5 million subscribers as of June 2008. NTV Plus is meanwhile the longest established DTH platform in Central Europe, having made its debut in 1996. This merger gives Tricolor TV access to NTV Plus's premium content at discount prices, and at the same time NTV Plus, which had mostly affluent urban subscribers, now has a much wider reach.

Russian operator Orion Express is planning to launch a new platform branded 'Continent TV' to complement its Viva TV service. The Continent platform is expected to bring a number of HDTV channels and also provide respite for the Viva service, which has suffered technical problems. While Orion Express has no plans to shut Viva TV, it may merge the two brands in the long run.

Poland to Follow?
Poland's new generation platform 'N' had over half a million subscribers as of the end of June and expects the number to rise to 848,000 next year. ARPU in June stood at €13.9 owing to the higher priced packages. The platform aims to have almost 1.5 million subscribers by 2012, according to its president Maciej Sojka who also expects its ARPU to rise to €18.8 by 2012. However, controlling group TVN issued provisional results recently that have raised concerns about its hitherto highly successful DTH platform. The subscriber total for 'N' stood at 730,000 as of the end of September this year, while its sister concern, the pre-pay service TNK, had 159,000 customers. It seems likely that these platforms will get closer in the future so as to leverage their individual subscriber numbers. However, there are other players that have been around for a longer time, such as Cyfrowy Polsat and Cyfra+ that are known to have easier access to liquid funds, an all important criteria for inorganic growth.

Cyfrowy Polsat ended 2008 with over 2.7 million subscribers, or 31.8% more than 12 months earlier. As of this year, Cyfrowy Polsat plans to invest around €14.2 million in 2010, a figure that is equivalent to around 5% of the platform's revenues. Although these funds have been largely allocated towards equipment subsidies, they could just as easily be directed towards acquisitions given that Poland's sixth platform is scheduled for launch in a few months.

Bottom Line
Central and Eastern Europe continues to be one of the most dynamic markets for Direct-to-Home services. Countries such as Russia and Poland have relatively more mature markets when it comes to Pay-TV. As a result, operators need to achieve scale in terms of subscriber numbers to remain competitive. Along with the double digit platform numbers, this race for subscribers has created an environment for consolidation.

Also, the current generation of Standard Definition platforms are expected to graduate to High Definition and possibly 3DTV in the near and long term respectively. This would bring in wave after wave of growth all across the value chain. The DTH business, in countries such as the United States and United Kingdom has followed the "subscribers first, ARPU later" model where customers, once tied in to a service have switched from basic to premium services thereby driving up ARPU numbers. However, given the advent of competing television offerings such as Free-to-Air, Digital Terrestrial and IPTV, replicating the growth already seen in these economies may be less than trivial.

Information for this article was extracted
from the NSR report entitled:
Global Direct to Home (DTH) Markets
2nd Edition


- top -