Northern Sky Research

$17 Billion HTS Capacity Market to Eclipse $2 Billion FSS Decline

Tue 27, Jun 2017

New NSR Study sees Highly Elastic GEO-HTS Demand Growth, with FSS Decline Faster than Expected

Cambridge, MA  The satellite industry is at the cusp of rapidly expanding its total addressable market and playing a much more critical role in the greater telecom ecosystem, with changes brought about by the lower cost per Mbps enabled by HTS capacity. This is the core finding of NSR’s industry leading Global Satellite Capacity Supply & Demand, 14th Edition (GSCSD14) study, released today. The study provides analysis for both supply and demand, and subsequent leasing revenues for satellite capacity moving forward.  The study finds that despite a decline of over $2 billion in annual FSS leasing revenues (driven by both C-band and Ku-band declines), the industry will be redefined by the promise of HTS capacity, seeing HTS revenues increase tenfold from 2016-2026, culminating in a $17 billion annual market by 2026. 

In looking at all planned and expected HTS launches, “we expect HTS capacity to exceed 17 Tbps by 2026, with around 60% of this capacity coming in the form of one, or more, LEO-HTS constellations. GEO-HTS will claim 7 Tbps, with most of this capacity coming on Ka-band GEO-HTS payloads launched in all regions,” noted Blaine Curcio, NSR Principal Analyst and report author. “Ultimately, this will expand the total addressable market for satellite, with verticals such as wireless backhaul, commercial mobility, and consumer broadband seeing exponential increases in demand. Even factoring in a significantly lower price point than today, there is huge revenue growth opportunity,” adds Curcio. 

The satellite industry will, moving forward, find itself in many positions where growth will need to be scalable. Indeed, when launching satellites with tens of times the throughput of previous satellites, operators need an effective way to move much more capacity than they were selling previously. “This will lead to operators forging closer ties to telcos, service providers, integrators, etc.--basically, companies who have the infrastructure to move a lot of capacity,” states Curcio. “I believe that SoftBank—one of the world’s largest telcos—investing $1.4 billion into OneWeb, and the company’s subsequent interest in Intelsat, is not the last time we will see a telco looking at a satellite operator as a strategic asset in a world increasingly based on global connectivity. Though it certainly is a vote of confidence for the industry”, said Curcio.

NSR’s GSCSD14 study tracks recent developments on both the supply and demand side of the market, including funding for new satellites by national-level governments, and CAPEX expansion plans of established operators, both global and local. Segmenting capacity among FSS C-, Ku-, and Ka-band, GEO-HTS C-, Ku-, and Ka-band, and Non-GEO-HTS, NSR’s study sheds light on the markets most likely to experience dramatic expansion due to elasticity of demand, while also examining macro factors that are causing some markets to settle into stagnant to negative growth. Finally, the study examines factors that the industry must emphasize in order to realize these growth rates, with technological change, new business models, and competitive dynamics being discussed.

About the Report

NSS’s Global Satellite Capacity Supply & Demand, 14th Edition is the industry’s most thorough study of the satellite capacity supply and demand. With highly detailed forecasts across eight separate applications in each of seven different types of capacity (C-band, Ku-band, widebeam Ka-band, HTS C-band, HTS Ku-band, HTS Ka-band, Non-GEO HTS) for thirteen regions. With over 1,000 tables and charts within the client Excel data sheets, as well as qualitative analysis explaining the context of the data within the PowerPoint, the report provides the most comprehensive and detailed data and analysis available to the industry. NSR led the industry in introducing the term HTS and forecasting of commercial services using High Throughput Satellite (HTS) and Non GEO-High Throughput Satellites (Non GEO-HTS) capacity. For additional information on this report, including a full table of contents, list of exhibits and executive summary, please visit www.nsr.com or call NSR at +1-617-674-7743.

About NSR

NSR is the leading global market research and consulting firm focused on the satellite and space sectors. NSR’s global team, unparalleled coverage and anticipation of trends with a higher degree of confidence and precision than the competition is the cornerstone of all NSR offerings.  First to market coverage and a transparent, dependable approach sets NSR apart as the key provider of critical insight to the satellite and space industries.  Contact us at info@nsr.com to discuss how we can assist your business.

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