Northern Sky Research

NSR’s 5-Year History of HTS Analysis

Nov 25th, 2013 by Christopher Baugh   More from this Analyst | Profile

Since NSR first coined the term “high throughput satellites” in 2009, the satellite industry has raced to develop this promising market vertical. In its very first HTS supply and demand assessment published nearly 5 years ago, NSR estimated that global HTS demand would reach about 190 Gbps in 2018 out of a worldwide supply of 425 Gbps. Now in its latest market size estimate in the Global Assessment of Satellite Supply & Demand 10th Edition study, NSR projects that global HTS demand will hit 451 Gbps in 2018 on a supply of 1.6 Tbps. And this is independent from the separate MEO-HTS market vertical – constellations such as O3b Networks – that could add another 67 Gbps of global demand on about 240 Gbps of MEO-HTS supply in 2018.

“What has changed in the last several years is the breath of applications and services that are now being targeted for HTS and MEO-HTS capacity”, notes Patrick M. French, NSR Senior Analyst and the report author. French adds that “however impressive the satellite industry’s rush to develop the HTS market, it is less the Gbps of demand that are important than the dollars in revenues that these new services are expected to generate.” NSR’s GASSD 10th Edition study currently forecasts that global HTS and MEO-HTS revenues will hit US$3.3 billion in wholesale capacity terms by 2022. “These are mainly net new revenues that will come from new services and applications addressable by HTS and MEO-HTS capacity rather than cannibalization of existing C/Ku FSS services as some have feared,” stated French.

In the GASSD 10th Edition study, NSR has gone to great lengths to assess as granularly as possible how different types of HTS capacity are applicable to different market applications. Plus, the reality that not all HTS capacity will be priced the same means that revenue potential very much depends on the application as well as the regional market served. “A Mbps of HTS capacity sold for a global mobility service is priced very differently and brings a different value to the end client than a Mbps of HTS capacity used for a consumer broadband Internet access service” explained French.

Drilling into the details of when and where open HTS architectures vs. closed architectures are more relevant, how coverage issues of HTS payloads impact addressability to different market verticals, and why choice of frequency band for the HTS service may or may not factor into quality of service considerations, these issues all have a bearing on making accurate and realistic market demand forecasts and are fully integrated into every NSR satellite market research service.

NSR’s global leadership role over the last five years in analysis and assessment of the HTS and MEO-HTS markets means that our studies by far offer the most granular and detailed analysis of the market opportunities to the satellite industry,” states Christopher Baugh, NSR President.NSR does not offer just one single “HTS study”, but instead has integrated the concept of HTS and MEO-HTS services into every research product offered to the industry for several years nowWe are also pleased to see other analyst firms just starting to cover HTS and look forward to remaining on the cutting edge of this ever emerging market.

Information for this article was extracted from NSR's report:  Global Assessment of Satellite Supply and Demand, 10th Edition.