NSR's Non-GEO Constellations Analysis Toolkit

NSR’s Non-GEO Constellations Analysis Toolkit

PUBLISHED: August 2020

Available Licenses: Standard: $4,595 Enterprise: $8,595

  • Report Summary
  • Key Features
  • Table of Contents
  • Supporting Articles

NSR’s Non-GEO Constellations Analysis Toolkit is an assembly of 9 flexible, configurable and easy-to-use quantitative models that x-ray and benchmark leading LEO/MEO high-throughput initiatives at architectural and business layers. The NSR toolkit provides a data-driven, unbiased vehicle for deep-diving into the inexorably intertwined technical and business aspects driving bandwidth supply, addressability and feasibility of leading mega-constellations, and their competitive standing versus terrestrial networks.

The toolkit is meant for both business and technical professionals alike seeking in-depth understanding of Non-GEO high-throughput SATCOM.  With pre-loaded data, configurable filters, inputs and visualizations, the toolkit is a standalone NSR product that may also be used in combination with market data and insight extracted from relevant NSR research studies.

Constellations of thousands of Non-GEO (NGSO) satellites beaming tens of Terabits per second have the potential to forever transform the space industry, making it imperative for decision makers across the telecom value chain to visualize possible “down-to-earth” impacts at granularly defined levels.

NSR’s Non-GEO Constellations Analysis Toolkit answers key questions:  
  • What are the technical differences among the leading Non-GEO-HTS initiatives?
  • What is the forward and return link capacity (spectrum, bandwidth and throughput) per gateway/user beam, satellite and constellation?
  • How can breakeven capital cost per usable Mbps/Month be inferred for each constellation shell? What is the sensitivity to key cost and performance elements?
  • What is the maximum latitude reached by each constellation shell and how many satellites are visible based on terminal location?
  • Under what conditions can mega-constellations become a more competitive option than fiber-optics to reach unserved communities? How sensitive is the business case?
  • How do fiber costs and latency compare with LEO architectures, with and without Inter-Satellite Links and ground relay stations?
  • What are satellite “pass time” and handoffs per hour, per system?
  • How distributed are antenna “look angles” pointing at visible satellites based on terminal location?
  • What is the regulatory status of each major initiative and proposed modifications?

The NSR Non-GEO Constellations Analysis Toolkit provides clients with the same set of analytical instruments that NSR leverages internally to holistically assess LEO/MEO HTS constellations in support of focused research studies and consulting projects.  The Non-GEO Constellations Analysis Toolkit includes a rich output set including maps of constellation satellites, orbital routes and footprints, benchmark charts, infographics, exportable data tables and other visualizations.

Bottom Line: Clients can easily conduct their own assessment of Non-GEO Constellations supported by NSR-developed tools.

NCAT Tool 1 Tutorial Video: General & Calcs

Comparison charts and maps of constellations at an architectural level.

 

NCAT Tool 2 Tutorial Video: Sats & Orbital Routes

World maps displaying satellites and orbital routes per (selectable) constellation shell.

NSR’s Non-GEO Constellations Analysis Toolkit includes a multiplicity of analytical tools distributed across 9 Excel files. Each tool has its own set of input variables and logic that drive output conclusions, charts, maps and visualizations.

Toolkit Elements Include:
  • Sophisticated but easy-to-use analytical models driven by auto-populated or manually set inputs and filters
  • Output-rich set of technical and business metrics benchmarking constellations performance
  • Useful visualizations including comparison charts, maps with satellites, orbital routes, footprints per constellation and infographics.
  • Detailed input and output data tables with information per shell
  • Bandwidth supply and addressability assessments for geographic-based SWOT and TAM analysis.
  • Examination of line-of-sight satellites and gateway/terminal beam IP throughput
  • Estimator of the breakeven capital cost per deployed and usable Mbps of capacity
  • Business case sensitivity analysis via configurable Monte Carlo simulation
  • Business-case scenario and sensitivity models for comparing NGSO versus terrestrial networks
  • Other models and calculators included: Satellites’ visibility cone and beam-covered areas, shells’ latitude reach, % of World surface and population addressed, orbital period, satellite handoff time, slant range, satellite vs. terrestrial latency, upstream and downstream spectrum and throughput, spectral efficiency, fiber-vs. satellite NPV, profitability, etc.

Who Should Purchase the Non-GEO Constellations Analysis Toolkit:
  • Traditional and Emerging Satellite Operators
  • Fixed and Wireless Telecom Network Operators including Telcos, MNOs, Wireless Local-Loop players and MSOs
  • Satellite Service Providers and System Integrators
  • Distributors and Resellers of Satellite Services and Capacity
  • Managed Services and IP Transit Network Operators
  • Equipment Vendors Developing Solutions for Non-GEO Satcom, including Terminals, Antennae, Broadband Hub/Modems and RF Subsystems
  • Regulators and Spectrum Utilization Agencies
  • End Users of Satellite Bandwidth and Services; both Commercial and Government/Mil Satcom
  • Space Agencies and First Responder Organizations
  • Financial Institutions

Non-GEO Systems Analyzed and Benchmarked:

Amazon Project Kuiper, OneWeb, SES O3B, Starlink, SpaceX VLEO, Telesat, and ViaSat

Table of Contents

Toolkit User Guide (PDF)

  • Executive Summary
    • Toolkit Summary Table
    • Non-GEO HTS Factors
    • Workflow & Flowchart Symbols
  • Toolkit Assumptions
  • Quick User Guide, by Tool
    • Inputs & Output
    • Filters
    • Sample Output, Charts and Data

Toolkit (9 Excel files)

  • Tool 1: General & Calcs
    • Maps with orbital routes and satellite footprint
    • Comparison charts for field of view, latitudes reached, orbital inclination and altitude, satellite pass time, handoffs/hour, link delay and slant range
    • Output Table with calculations per constellation shell: Orbital period, flight velocity, latitude reach, satellite handoffs, Earth’ coverage, slant range and delay
    • Orbital Dynamics Calculators
    • Mbps (CIR) to GByte (Usage) Pricing Converter
  • Tool 2: Sats & Orbital Routes
    • Maps displaying all satellites and orbital routes for each constellation shell and for final combined system
  • Tool 3: Sat Tracker
    • Map with visible sats and routes for selected shell based on site location
    • “Sat Tracker” chart showing antenna’s look angles (azimuth & elevation) for visible routes
    • Distribution histogram for the antenna elevation angle
    • Calculation of satellites in Line of Sight (LOS) for the defined site location
  • Tool 4: Sats in Line of Sight (LOS)
    • Chart and table with the minimum, average and maximum number of satellites in Line of Sight across all latitudes
    • Pre-ran table and chart results for the default constellation shells
  • Tool 5: Throughput & Link Budgeting
    • Link Budgeting tools per system
    • Uplink and downlink Frequency Plans
    • Charts comparing constellations’ spectrum and IP throughput at beam and satellite levels
    • Maps comparing constellations coverage and beamwidth
    • FCC filing information
  • Tool 6: Addressability Map
    • Analysis of addressable population and surface area
    • Density maps and tables for the targeted population and target areas
  • Tool 7: Fiber Optic vs. SAT Delay
    • Analysis of propagation latency for end-to-end link using Fiber Optics (FO) and LEO Satellite (SAT)
    • Benchmark of four possible SAT scenarios considering use of Inter-satellite Links (ISLs), terrestrial interconnections and gateway relay stations
    • Infographics output for SAT vs. FO scenarios
  • Tool 8: Fiber Optic vs. SAT Business Case
    • Business-Case sensitivity analysis for Fiber Optics (FO) versus Satellite (SAT) project evaluation
    • Charts with resulting EBITDA, FCF, NPV and Profitability including histogram distribution of possible outcomes
    • Scatter plots illustrating correlations between model inputs and BC output
  • Tool 9: Non-GEO Business Case
    • Sensitivity analysis for the capital cost of deployed and usable Mbps/Month and bandwidth breakeven price
    • Probability charts
    • Scatter plots illustrating correlations between model inputs and BC output
    • Infographics summarizing tool’s analysis, use of spectrum and constellation’s architectural aspects

List of Exhibits 

Charts
  • Non-GEO-HTS Orbital Routes
  • Relative Size of Field of View (FoV) & Latitude Reached
  • Orbital Inclination & Altitude
  • Maximum Satellite Pass Time
  • Satellite Handoffs per Hour
  • Maximum Latitude Reached and Satellite FoV Map
  • Maximum and Minimum Link Delay
  • Single-Shell Maps of Satellites and Orbital Routes
  • Full- Constellation Maps of Satellites and Orbital Routes
  • Visibility Cone of Satellites and Routes
  • “Sat Tracker” of antenna elevation and azimuth
  • Elevation Angle Distribution Histogram
  • Satellites in Line of Sight
  • Uplink & Downlink Frequency Plans
  • Preferred DVB-S2X ModCods
  • Gateway Beams – Spectrum
  • User Beams – Spectrum
  • Gateway Beams – Reuse Factor
  • User Beams – Reuse Factor
  • Gateway Beams – Bandwidth
  • User Beams – Bandwidth
  • Gateway Beams – Throughput
  • User Beams – Throughput
  • Number of Gateway Beams and Type
  • Number of User Beams and Type
  • Global Aggregate Forward and Return IP Throughput
  • Satellite Footprint
  • Satellite FWD/RTN Capacity Averaged per Sq. Km of Coverage Area
  • Satellite FoV and Single Beam at Sub-Satellite Point
  • Individual Beam Footprints at Sub-Satellite Point
  • World Population Distribution
  • Addressable Population
  • Addressable Surface Area
  • Addressable Population Map
  • Fiber Optics Delay -Infographic
  • LEO with ISL Delay -Infographic
  • Hybrid LEO-FO Delay -Infographic
  • LEO with Gateway Stations Delay -Infographic
  • LEO with Relay Stations Delay -Infographic
  • Animated Clip Samples
  • EBITDA Probability Charts
  • FCF Probability Charts
  • NPV Probability Charts
  • PV of FCF as Growing Perpetuity Probability Charts
  • NPV Profitability Index Probability Charts
  • Satellite NPV vs. Bandwidth Cost Scatter Plot
  • Satellite NPV vs. GW Hosting Revenues Scatter Plot
  • Satellite NPV vs. StatMuxing Savings Scatter Plot
  • Satellite NPV vs. Terminal CAPEX Scatter Plot
  • PV of FCF as Growing Perpetuity vs. FCF Growth Rate Scatter Plot
  • Probability Charts for Breakeven Price per Usable Mbps per Month, considering all addressable area
  • Probability Charts for Breakeven Price per Usable Mbps per Month for Projected Captured Market
  • Scatter Plot for Breakeven Cost per Usable Mbps per Month; considering all addressable area
  • Scatter Plot for Breakeven Price per Usable Mbps; for estimated market capture
  • Infographic for Estimated Capital Cost per Usable Mbps
  • Infographic for Main Architectural Aspects
  • Infographic for Spectrum & Bandwidth
Tables 
  • Orbital Dynamics Data
  • Spectrum, Bandwidth and Throughput Data
  • Data table with elevation angle distribution
  • Satellites in LOS
  • Link Budget
  • Transmit and Receive Frequency Bands
  • Link Budget Summary
  • Satellite Spectrum and TX/RX Channels
  • Satellite and Forward/Return IP Throughput
  • Preferred DVB-S2X ModCods
  • FCC Filings Technical Data
  • Atmospheric Loss Assumptions
  • Population Distribution Data Set
  • Addressable Population Distribution Data
  • Addressable Surface Area Data
  • Fiber and Satellite Delay
  • Fiber vs. Satellite Business Case Sensitivity Analysis
  • EBITDA Output of Sensitivity Analysis
  • FCF Output of Sensitivity Analysis
  • NPV Output of Sensitivity Analysis
  • PV of FCF as Growing Perpetuity Output of Sensitivity Analysis
  • NPV Profitability Index Output of Sensitivity Analysis
  • Sensitivity Analysis Monte Carlo samples
  • Sensitivity Analysis Histogram Data
  • FO CAEX Debt Financing Repayment Schedule
  • SAT CAPEX Debt Financing Repayment Schedule
  • Capital Cost per Mbps Analysis Table.

 

 

 

NSR’s NCAT Tutorials

NCAT Tool 1 Tutorial Video: General & Calcs

Comparison charts and maps of constellations at an architectural level.

NCAT Tool 2 Tutorial Video: Sats & Orbital Routes

World maps displaying satellites and orbital routes per (selectable) constellation shell.

NSR’s NCAT in the News

NSR Releases Toolkit Benchmarking LEO and MEO Satellite Constellations

NSR’s NCAT Bottom Lines

SpaceX-RAYing Starlink Developments

 

Can Non-GEO HTS Beat Fiber Economics?

 

LEO Speed: When Milliseconds are Worth $Millions

 

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