Satellite Communications

Satellite Constellations: A Critical Assessment


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  • Report Summary
  • Key Features
  • Table of Contents
  • Supporting Articles

Satellite constellations plans have been a central satcom topic for decades.  From expanding the customer base to providing connectivity to rural areas, the potential is immense but likewise are the challenges. With a certain level of skepticism airing around these plans, NSR’s Satellite Constellations: A Critical Assessment report dives into the various aspects of the business and takes a stance on the future of key satellite constellations.

This report provides an in-depth competitive assessment of key satellite constellations within three market segments: Communication HTS, IoT & EO. It reviews various aspect of the business case including launcher strategy, ground infrastructure costs, manufacturing and replenishment plans as well as financing status and distribution for each constellation. The financial ‘Bottom Line’ for each is scrutinized and compared against a qualitative assessment to evaluate their prospects. Based on this analysis, NSR further evaluates growth trends of NGEO constellations within each target market over a 10-year period.

Bottom Line: How does NSR see the NGEO Satellite Constellation market developing and evolving in the next 10 years for each market?  And are specific constellations financially viable?

Data Segmentation

NSR’s Satellite Constellations: A Critical Assessment report provides a comprehensive assessment of the emerging NGEO market through an analysis of the new players in three market segments. 

Companies and organizations mentioned in this report: LeoSat Enterprises, Inc., Telesat, SES, SpaceX, OneWeb, Kepler Communications, Hiber, Astrocast, Hera Systems, UrtheCast, BlackSky Global LLC, Planet Labs, Inc., Iridium Communications, Globalstar, Orbcomm, ViaSat, Inc., Boeing, Laser Light Communications, Theia Space, Sky and Space Global, SpaceQuest Ltd, Analytical Space, Blink Astro, Fleet Space Technologies, Myriota, Astrome Technologies, Audacy, Airbus DS, DigitalGlobe, Earth-i, Satellogic, Axelspace, Spire, e-GEOS, ImageSat International, and  DMC International Imaging.

Executive Summary

1. Global Market Overview
1.1 Industry Overview
1.1.1 Industry Overview – Communications (HTS)
1.1.2 Industry Overview – Communications (IoT)
1.1.3 Industry Overview – Earth Observation (VHR and HR)
1.1.4 Industry Overview – Earth Observation (HR and MR)
1.2 Report Overview
1.3 Constellations Overview
1.3.1 Constellations Overview – FCC (Filing Status)
1.3.2 Constellation Overview – FCC (Gating Criteria)
1.3.3 Constellations Overview – Landing Rights
1.4 Constellations Summary – HTS
1.4.1 LeoSat
1.4.2 SES mPower
1.4.3 Telesat
1.4.4 OneWeb
1.4.5 SpaceX
1.5 Constellations Summary – IoT
1.5.1 Kepler
1.5.2 Hiber
1.5.3 Astrocast
1.6 Constellations Overview – Earth Observation
1.6.1 BlackSky Global
1.6.2 UrtheDaily
1.6.3 Hera Systems
1.6.4 Planet SkySat

2. Critical Assessment – Qualitative
2.1 CAPEX and Replenishment
2.1.1 CAPEX and Replenishment – HTS
2.1.2 CAPEX and Replenishment – IoT
2.1.3 CAPEX and Replenishment – EO
2.2 Financing Status
2.2.1 Financing Status – HTS
2.2.2 Financing Status – IoT
2.2.3 Financing Status – EO
2.3 Manufacturing and Operations
2.3.1 Manufacturing and Operations – HTS
2.3.2 Manufacturing and Operations – EO and IoT
2.4 Ground Infrastructure
2.5 Qualitative Analysis – Bottom Line

3. Critical Assessment: Quantitative
3.1 Critical Assessment: Quantitative
3.2 Financial Analysis: HTS
3.3 Financial Analysis: IoT
3.4 Financial Analysis: EO
3.5 Quantitative Assessment – Bottom Line

4. Market Forecast
4.1 NGEO HTS Revenue Forecast
4.2 NGEO IoT Revenue Forecast
4.3 NGEO Earth Observation Revenue Forecast
4.4 Forecast – Bottom Line

Appendix – Methodology & Assumptions

List of Exhibits

E-1 NGEO HTS ROI Comparison by Constellation
E-2 NGEO HTS Revenue Growth
E-3 NGEO IoT ROI Comparison by Constellation
E-4 NGEO IoT Revenue Growth
E-5 NGEO EO ROI Comparison by Constellation
E-6 NGEO EO Revenue Growth

1-1 Constellations FCC Filing Status
1-2 Constellations Overview – HTS
1-2-1 LeoSat Status Check
1-2-2 SES mPower Status Check
1-2-3 Telesat Status Check
1-2-4 OneWeb Status Check
1-2-5 SpaceX Status Check
1-3 Constellations Overview – IoT
1-3-1 Kepler Status Check
1-3-2 Hiber Status Check
1-3-3 Astrocast Status Check
1-4 Constellations Overview – EO
1-4-1 BlackSky Global Status Check
1-4-2 UrtheDaily Status Check
1-4-3 Hera Systems Status Check
1-4-4 Planet’ SkySat Status Check

2-1 Baseline CAPEX by HTS Constellation
2-2 HTS Replenishment Expense/Year
2-3 Baseline CAPEX by EO Constellation
2-4 EO Replenishment Expense/Year
2-5 Baseline CAPEX by IoT Constellation
2-6 IoT Replenishment Expense/Year
2-7 Total Funding and Baseline CAPEX – HTS Constellations
2-7-1 NGEO HTS Cash Flow Analysis (2017- 2027)
2-8 Total Funding and Baseline CAPEX – IoT Constellations
2-8-1 NGEO IoT Cash Flow Analysis (2017 – 2027)
2-9 Total Funding and Baseline CAPEX – EO Constellations
2-9-1 NGEO EO Cash Flow Analysis (2017 – 2027)
2-10 Economies of Scale Factor by Constellation – HTS
2-11 Economies of Scale Factor by Constellation – IoT
2-12 Economies of Scale Factor by Constellation – EO
2-13 NGEO Ground Infrastructure Complexity Flow Chart

3-1 Capacity Revenue Market Share by Vertical per Constellation
3-2 IoT In-Service Units Market Share by Constellation
3-3 EO Market Share by Service by Constellation
3-4 NGEO HTS ROI Comparison by Constellation
3-5 NGEO HTS EBITDA Margin Comparison by Constellation
3-6 SpaceX ROI (%) Comparison
3-7 SpaceX EBITDA Comparison
3-8 NGEO IoT ROI Comparison by Constellation
3-9 NGEO IoT EBITDA Margin Comparison by Constellation
3-10 NGEO EO ROI Comparison by Constellation
3-11 NGEO EO EBITDA Margin Comparison by Constellation

4-1 NGEO Constellations HTS Market Share by Revenues and Verticals
4-2 2027 NGEO Revenue Share by Vertical
4-3 NGEO HTS Consumer Broadband Revenue
4-4 NGEO HTS Wireless Backhaul and Enterprise Revenue
4-5 NGEO HTS Land Mobility Revenue
4-6 NGEO HTS Maritime Revenue
4-7 NGEO HTS Gov/ Military Revenue
4-8 NGEO HTS Aero Revenue
4-9 NGEO IoT Revenues
4-10 NGEO IoT Revenues Comparison
4-11 NGEO EO Revenues – Big Data
4-12 NGEO EO Revenues – VAS
4-13 NGEO EO Revenues – Data
4-14 NGEO EO Revenues – IP

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