Satellite Communications

U.S. C-Band Repurposing for 5G: Impacts and Analysis

PUBLISHED: August 2019

Available Licenses: Standard: $ 3,495 Enterprise: $ 5,995

  • Report Summary
  • Key Features
  • Table of Contents
  • Supporting Articles

NSR’s U.S. C-Band Repurposing for 5G: Impacts and Analysis report is the most comprehensive and complete analysis for the U.S. C-Band Spectrum repurposing process. Building on over 19 years of regular NSR reporting and in-depth data gathering and forecasting for U.S. C-Band markets, the report assesses all the key elements behind the spectrum reallocation process:

While repurposing of mid-band spectrum has created uncertainty for the satellite Industry in the U.S. and elsewhere, this reports provides clarity on the most probable outcomes for this process in North America and the risk for contagion globally. It is a “must have” report for anyone seeking bottom line data and analysis on the urgent need to repurpose C-Band spectrum, the most probable future line of events and the impact on the satellite industry.

The core of NSR’s detailed assessment is rooted in bottom-up methodology followed to assess the different elements influencing the process (supply, demand, market share, repurposing plan, costs of repurposing, spectrum value). NSR delivers the widest and most detailed coverage of the repurposing process, leveraging its historical database (longest-running forecast for C-Band supply and demand over the U.S.), the extensive library of reports covering in detail each relevant segment (Video, Mobility, Enterprise Data, Ground Segment, Satellite Manufacturing and Launch, etc.) and the deep understanding of the relevant market dynamics.

Bottom Line: Will the satellite industry emerge as a winner or loser in this C-Band repurposing process?

NSR’s U.S. C-Band Repurposing for 5G: Impacts and Analysis is based on long standing methodologies that have been validated and improved over the years on NSRs’ extensive library of reports. NSR rigorously tracks the public announcements of all major players across the value chain and has carried extensive interviews to build base year data and carefully formulate forecast data.

Every active satellite with C-Band supply over CONU.S. and future orders are tracked to generate an accurate supply assessment. Demand is built up from NSR’s extensive coverage on vertical-specific reports. NSR’s GSCSD16, VBSM17, WBS13, MSM7, ASM7, GMSC15 reports are used to generate the demand forecast for each specific vertical. Market Share analysis is based on the assessment of channels broadcasted per satellite operator, fill rate per satellite and tracking key deals in the region for each satellite operator.

NSR applies its knowledge on supply-demand dynamics to assess the potential for further spectrum reassignments following network optimization (adoption of enhanced compression and transmission standards) and migration to other bands. Based on NSR’s understanding of Ground Segment and Space Segment dynamics and leveraging NSR’S CSGS3 and SMLS9 reports, a bottom-up analysis of repurposing costs is presented. Spectrum valuation and analysis of share of proceeds to the satellite operators currently leasing out the C-band capacity in CONU.S., is presented, building upon the financial practice area at the firm.

Primary Elements of the Report Include:

Who Should Purchase this Report?

Companies and Organizations Mentioned in the Report

Intelsat, SES, Eutelsat, Telesat, C-Band Alliance, FCC, Hispasat, StarOne, ABS

Table of Contents

Introduction and Review

Definitions – Market Forecast

Definitions – Acronyms

Executive Summary

  1. Background on C-Band Repurposing
    1. Definitions
    2. Sharing Proposal
    3. Probability of Occurrence of a Secondary Transaction
  2. CONUS C-Band Market Dynamics
    1. Baseline Demand, Supply and Pricing Forecast
    2. Baseline Pricing for Video Distribution
    3. Market Share
    4. Phase 2 Repurposing Demand, Supply and Pricing Forecast
  3. Measuring the Impact of Repurposing
    1. Baseline Repurposing Costs – Ground Segment
    2. Baseline Repurposing Costs – Space Segment
    3. Phase 2 Repurposing Costs
  4. Financial Impact Analysis
    1. Spectrum Valuation: Scenarios and Recommendations
    2. Financial Scenarios: Assumptions and Sensitivity Analysis
    3. Impact/Contagion on Other Markets

List of Exhibits

ES1: CONUS Baseline Leased C-band Revenues by Application

ES2: CONUS Phase-2 C-band TPE Supply and Demand

ES3: CONUS Phase 2 Leased C-band Revenues by Application

ES4: CONUS Market Share of Leased C-band, 2018

ES5: Proceeds to CBA Under Spectrum Clearance Scenarios ($0.35/MHz-Pop Valuation)

ES6: Ratio PV (Net Proceeds)/EBITDA (FY2018) for Operators Under CBA

 

  1. Probability of Occurrence of a Secondary Transaction: Positives and Deterrents
  2. CONUS
    1. CONUS Baseline C-band TPE Demand by Application
    2. CONUS Baseline Leased C-band Revenues by Application
    3. CONUS Baseline C-band TPEs Supply and Demand
    4. CONUS Baseline Leased C-band Pricing by Application
    5. CONUS Baseline Leased C-band Pricing for Distribution with Min and Max Limits
    6. CONUS Market Share of Leased C-band, 2018
    7. CONUS Market Share of C-band Supply, 2018
    8. CONUS Phase-2 C-band TPE Demand by Application
    9. CONUS Phase-2 Leased C-band Revenues by Application
    10. Video Distribution Channel to TPE Ratio (2018-2028)
    11. CONUS Phase-2 C-band TPE Supply and Demand
    12. CONUS Baseline Leased C-band Pricing by Application, Phase 2
  3. Repurposing Costs
    1. Baseline Repurposing Costs – Additional Filters
    2. Baseline Repurposing Costs – Frequency/Polarization Changes
    3. Baseline Repurposing Costs – Satellite Repointing Changes
    4. Baseline Repurposing Costs – Antenna Seeding and Antenna Replacement
    5. Baseline Repurposing Costs – Extreme Cases
    6. Baseline Repurposing Costs – Space Segment
    7. Baseline Repurposing Costs – Total Space and Ground Segment
    8. Phase 2 Repurposing Costs – Additional Filters
    9. Phase 2 Repurposing Costs – Frequency/Polarization Changes
    10. Phase 2 Repurposing Costs – Satellite Repointing Changes
    11. Phase 2 Repurposing Costs – Antenna Seeding and Antenna Replacement
    12. Phase 2 Repurposing Costs – Extreme Cases
    13. Phase 2 Repurposing Costs – Video Equipment
    14. Phase 2 Repurposing Costs – Total Ground Segment Costs
  4. Section 4
    1. MHz Clearance Scenarios and Timeline
    2. Spectrum Bids Precedents Around the World
    3. Spectrum Valuation – Scenario Key Results and Proceeds to Each Operator
    4. Scenario 1A – Key Parameters and Reasoning
    5. Scenario 1B – Key Parameters and Reasoning
    6. Scenario 2A – Key Parameters and Reasoning
    7. Scenario 2B – Key Parameters and Reasoning
    8. Ratio PV (Net Proceeds)/EBITDA (FY2018) for Operators Under CBA
    9. Operator and Corresponding PV (Net Proceeds)/EBITDA (FY2018) Range
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