A $24 Billion+ Opportunity – The Emerging Space Nations
Pursuing revenue opportunities within the governmental “big spenders” in space offers several benefits, such as multiple large value contract opportunities within the one country. With that said, NSR’s Government Spending on Space notes while the top 5 “big spender” countries account for approximately 80% of 2023 revenue opportunity, the other 20% represent a $24 B+ revenue potential and that should not be discounted.
Many countries are on the verge of development in space. It is an attractive proposition. For example, Space can inspire work force up-skilling which is key to promoting a high skill economy, the industry itself has long been highlighted as a resilient, high growth sector and engagement allows nation states to use space technology towards the betterment of the quality of life of their citizens e.g. digital divide programs.
With countries still addressing the impact of the Pandemic as well as current levels of global socioeconomic-political instability NSR’s Government Spending on Space expects short-term growth to be steady but slow however in the medium to long-term the industry should be ready for a potentially significant opportunity. Early engagers will see themselves well positioned to capture longer term growth however this will require strategic planning and action at organizations now.
Key Considerations for Interested Companies
Timing of Market Entry
Right now, the “other 20%” are not the Space & Satellite industries big spenders however the operative word here is “now”. The long-term opportunity is currently being written and should not be ignored. Early entry to a market as it is established can aid in the creation of market dynamic favorable to your product/service, building out supply chains and market expectations that work for you.
Further to this, government decisions to engage with the space industry do not necessarily signal a strong internal knowledge base as to the finer points of product/ service details. Knowing you want imagery on forest fire risks is much different than knowing what spectrum or how many you need. Filling this need by being a ground floor participant also allows you to promote the precise offering of your organization as relationships are built.
Priority Products/ Services
NSR’s Government Spending on Space identified Satellite Applications as a key interest in emerging space nations (see below chart for example of breakdown of identified nation-state space priorities within Latin American region). With high consistency, this appears in many nation-state space policies, plans, and goals and for obvious reasons offers the potential of immediate impact. Those who offer downstream services should consider a tailored pricing response and offering to enhance accessible. This allows players to expand their customer base and set the potential for growth as the emerging players become established.
Regional Activity
With an increasing number of actors of concern in a number of regions, nation-states are now forced to examine how to protect their citizens across multiple domains. The ability to address these new challenges may include the need to, for example, evaluate actions in the region, the movement of displaced citizens as well as maritime monitoring. These can all be addressed well via space related data. As this response grows less engaged countries will risk being left behind in security and connectivity as their neighbors’ progress their goals. Expect newer, smaller player to enter in the field in the medium to long-term as opportunities grow for services that can offer solutions. Those with established relationships and proven track records will benefit as these opportunities come online as a known partner option.
The Bottom Line
The Space & Satellite industry must build relationships within these emerging space nations. As spending power is consolidated within the ‘top 5’ countries, providers ready to enter emerging markets in the short-term will be positioned to enable long-term revenue capture. Building relationships now, offers the ability to aid in shaping where and what longer-term rewards. For interested parties, this warrants internal strategic assessment in the short-term as being first past the post will be key.